← Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Fire AggroTier 1
at Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
2
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
7-6-0
overall winrate
53.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.7%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1417
· median 1417
· range 1339–1496
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1114
Q1 1260
Q3 1446
1668
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +11.8 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.6% | -19.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.8 |
| Water Fractal | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beast | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
